7/25/2023 0 Comments Accident risk probabilityStudying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model. Leidschendam, Netherlands.īrijs, T., Karlis, D. The Influence of Weather Conditions on Road Safety. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 60, 456–465.īijleveld, F. Explaining the road accident risk: Weather effects. This paper demonstrates that the quality of the roadways is important since there are 2.574 times higher odds for an accident to be fatal where the roadway has potholes compared with a normal pavement.īergel-Hayat, R., Debbarh, M., Antoniou, C. Also, the odds for those accidents that occurred between 02:00 ∼ 04:59 are 1.624 times higher than between 16:00 ∼ 20:59. The highways are most dangerous during rains, since the odds for a fatal accident are 3.340 times higher than on streets. The Adjusted Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC’) is used to further test the fit of probability model in a comprehensive way and the risk distributions are described using their descriptive parameters. The influence of circadian rhythms on the drivers’ behavior is taken into consideration by setting up the accidents’ time intervals based on the “black time”. A probabilistic approach is used in order to assess the fatal risk as a function of probability and accidents’ consequences, based on 14 types of predictors that relate to road environment, time of accidents and lighting conditions. This paper aims at assessing and identifying a fatal injury risk model with an exponential structure for the accidents that occur in rainy conditions, based on highly disaggregated level of data.
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